Subtitles of the Movie

In this movie, we'll continue our review of the quantitative risk analysis process workbook review. In the previous movie, we left off with question nine so we'll continue on beginning with question ten. Question ten gives you an opportunity to put this formula to practice, which is quite easy when you know it. The question ten presents you with a table containing four work package examples, each with a probability percentage and value of impact. Simply multiply the impact by the probability to get the answers. The first answer is 840 dollars. The second is 2,325. The third is 13,760 and the fourth is 12,950. Question 11 gives you another opportunity to practice calculating the expected monetary value. Once again we'll simply multiply the impact by the probability. And the first answer is 650 dollars. The second is 2,000 dollars. The third is 4,250 dollars and lastly we have 10,890. Question 12: what does decision tree analysis result in? It takes multiple scenarios and calculates the level of impact. Next you're presented with a scenario displayed in decision tree format and asked to calculate the expected monetary value for each of the two alternatives shown. Our example product includes the option of buying or of making. Remember how we just practiced calculating the expected monetary value in the previous two questions? That's really all we're doing here except that in addition you also needed to add the initial amount spent. The first part of the answer is 164,550 dollars. You get this by multiplying the impact of 113,000 by the probability of 35 percent and adding the initial amount spent to buy the product, which is 125,000. In the second part, which is the option of making the product, you simply follow the same steps. Multiply the impact of 70,000 by the probability of 65 percent, then add the cost of making the product, 155,000 resulting in an expected monetary value of 200,500 dollars. Question 14 is tied to question 13. In the previous example, which is a better choice; buy or make? Based on our calculations, we would select the buy option. Question 15 presents you with a similar situation with different numbers, meant to give you another round of practice. The correct answers are 1,625 for the buy option and 525 dollars for the make option. Based on this we would select the make option as our answer to question 16, which asks for the better choice. Moving on to question 17, name a type of modeling and simulation technique and then describe it. This refers to the Monte Carlo Technique. It takes a network diagram and simulates many scenarios to determine all possibilities. And for our final question, number 18, the quantitative risk analysis process results in four additional updates to the risk register. Name at least one. And there were four updates again that we reviewed. These included probabilistic analysis, probability of achieving cost and time objectives, prioritize list of quantified risks and trends in quantitative risk analysis results. That cover all the workbook exercises pertaining to the quantitative risk analysis process, which closes out this movie, the process review and the overall section.